Parents, take note: As back-to-school shopping season arrives, prices for children's shoes continue to fall
Footwear prices rose modestly in July as overall inflation slowed, according to new data from the Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America (FDRA).
Last month, retail footwear prices rose modestly again in July, up just 1.0% year over year. Men's shoe prices rose 2.2% in July, while women's shoe prices rose 1.1%. Those gains offset a fifth straight decline in children's shoe prices, which fell 0.9%.
“The July data echo our previous view of a ‘long right tail’ in overall inflation – that is, it may take longer for price increases to fall to the Fed’s 2% target,” FDRA Chief Economist Gary Raines told FN. “These data also reinforce the outlook for retail footwear prices to see only modest changes this year.”
More specifically, Raines noted that retail footwear prices rose just 0.9% through the first seven months of 2024, with price increases for men's (up 2.2%) and women's (up 1.1%) shoes masking a 1.2% year-to-date price decline for children’s footwear.
“Relatedly, annual children's footwear prices are still expected to decline in 2024, which would be only the second time in the past fourteen years,” the executive said.
With children's footwear prices declining, families now have more room to focus on shoe attributes other than price when shopping for back-to-school shoes, a trend previously noted by Circana. Overall, though, FDRA expects revenue from back-to-school shoe sales to increase this year, even though unit sales may decline.
“We're also seeing that moms are absolutely looking for shoes that offer more value for money,” Matt Priest, president and CEO of FDRA, told FN in July. "We can think of this season as a 'value-driven' back-to-school season, where prices drive traffic but value is critical to actual purchases."
The July footwear price increase came as the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that overall retail prices saw their smallest 12-month gain since March 2021.
The bureau's latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed prices rose 0.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis after falling 0.1% in June. Prices are also up 2.9% over the past 12 months.
Excluding volatile food and energy costs, the core CPI rose 0.2% in July, up 0.1% last month, and is 3.2% higher than a year ago.